Last month, Sun Microsystems announced a new software offering called the Sun Java Desktop System (JDS), a bundle of enhanced open source software to compete with Microsoft’s dominant Windows operating system and Office productivity suite.

Most of the business and technology media and analysts seemed unimpressed. Some even said that it was doomed because they considered the product to be a desktop for primarily running Java applications – understandable because of its name. But New Rowley believes that JDS is a significant offering for organizations looking to rein in costs but still empower their workers with essential, electronic tools like word processors, spreadsheets, and presentation programs.

While Sun and its new software bundle won’t take over the Microsoft PC crown alone, next year JDS and a host of nearly identical offerings from other vendors like IBM will begin to bump Microsoft PC products out of significant accounts.

The Java Desktop System offering

The most important aspects of the JDS, which Sun says will be available for early adopters by the end of this year, are that it is:

• A direct competitor to Windows and Office. Sun says that JDS is for PCs up to three-years old and is designed for what it calls transactional workers, such as call center personnel. While we think that it makes sense for Sun to keep expectations low, particularly given the company’s past history of attempting but failing to deliver a Windows/Office competitor, our view is that JDS is a direct Windows/Office competitor for a large number of PC users.
  
  Many Windows users today only require a productivity suite and access to corporate applications. With many corporate applications using a Web front end, only those requiring Windows-only solutions would be excluded.
  
  
• Open source at heart. The JDS bundle includes a version of the Linux operating system that is coupled with the GNOME user interface and Sun’s StarOffice, an enhanced version of the OpenOffice productivity suite. StarOffice includes a word processor, spreadsheet, and presentation program that can open and save Microsoft Office files. Sun includes its environment for running Java software on PCs and other computing devices, called J2SE, although it is not the core proposition of JDS -- despite the product’s name.
  
  
• Priced at $100 per user per year. While volume discounts and other incentives often bring the cost of Microsoft products down, the annual subscription for JDS will be hard to beat. It includes the software suite, maintenance, and 60-day installation support for users. In addition, Sun offers the Desktop Trade-Up program which gives a first-year discount to companies using the Java Enterprise System.
  
  Can Microsoft undercut Sun? Sure, but while Microsoft effectively defeated upstart Netscape by giving away the Explorer Web browser, it can’t repeat that strategy to crush Sun; a huge chunk of Microsoft’s massive profits come from the sales of Windows and Office.

JDS is really one of many similar Linux/OpenOffice.org offerings

While JDS will also run on Sun’s own flavor of the UNIX operating system, called Solaris, by the middle of next year, it will be marketed primarily as a Linux desktop and productivity suite. Why is this important? Because it means that Sun, Linux distributors SuSE and Red Hat, and possibly vendors like IBM, EDS, Oracle, and BEA Systems can market a nearly identical offering. These Linux Desktop Alternatives (LDAs) will enable potential buyers, whether companies, governments, educational institutions, or other organizations, to shop around for their core PC software from multiple suppliers.

Will an LDA bundle from Sun or another vendor win a media or analyst software shootout against Windows and Office 2003? The answer depends on the criteria used. For example, Microsoft offerings may score the most points for having a highly integrated product, but potential buyers may be more interested in features like the standards-based file format of an LDA bundle. New Rowley believes that when comparing features that matter to most mainstream computer users, Microsoft and multivendor LDA offerings will soon essentially come out even.

Microsoft will dominate for now, but LDAs have unique advantages

Nobody who understands how slowly desktop changes occur in most organizations expects the LDA approach to take over the PC world in the next couple years. But signs of a sea change are readily available. Microsoft will continue to aggressively fight open source software, such as Linux and OpenOffice, and extol how its products are easier to use and more feature-filled, but there is no way to avoid the fact that open source:

• Will always cost less to buy. Companies that want to can roll their own LDA solutions without incurring any software acquisitions costs, although most firms will choose to hire a third party to help roll out and support the desktop. Yet even this cost is usually significantly less than what Microsoft charges today for Windows and Office licensees.
  
  Microsoft’s fixation on total cost of ownership (TCO) demonstrates that the vendor knows it can’t possibly win an acquisition-cost battle. Its current hope is in convincing buyers that Linux and open source support is more expensive over the long haul. Having conducted numerous TCO studies in the past, we know that trying to prove a TCO case is futile. Increasing LDA expertise, better Linux and open source management tools, and LDA interfaces that mimic Microsoft offerings will dull favorable Microsoft TCO arguments.
  
  
• Lets companies choose their own upgrade paths. Microsoft has been hoping to entice its customers to sign multiyear, subscription-based licensing arrangements that give users access to the latest Microsoft software. The alternative is for companies to buy Microsoft products according to their own time frame but at higher prices. For many technology buyers, using LDAs and controlling the upgrade cycle without incurring extra costs will keep desktop upgrades in line with business needs.
  
  
• Is open to inspection. In this time of catastrophic email worms, proprietary solutions like Microsoft's begin to look risky because only Microsoft has access to and ,therefore, can fix security issues and bugs. Open source, on the other hand, is available for review by everyone – from engineers at Sun to independent developers worldwide. Feature requests, reported bugs, and patch histories are available for perusal and comment by anyone who has the understanding and interest.
  
  
• Is getting very close to “good enough” for the masses. The most threatening issue to Microsoft is the fact that LDAs are almost as good as they really need to be to compete in the PC market. Just as large vendors like IBM took up the reins to make Linux ready for the enterprise, so to will other vendors add capabilities to LDA components that are lagging, such as the GNOME desktop’s file system.
  
  And history shows that “good enough,” when coupled with advantages like lower cost, can win the day. Just ask Apple Macintosh diehards, who lamented throughout the 1990s that Windows was crude and too hard to use by nontechnophiles. This same story is being repeated today, as Microsoft and Windows/Office supporters claim that LDAs aren’t sophisticated enough for the “average user.”

Linux desktops are winning early skirmishes, soon major battles

In several high-profile cases, an LDA alternative has begun to succeed despite fierce Microsoft counterattacks. For example, earlier this year, the city of Munich, Germany, chose to go the Linux desktop route in a much-publicized battle that Microsoft desperately tried to win. Another example is the state of Massachusetts, whose technical leaders have been actively investigating Linux on the desktop. Finally, from a small-business perspective, there is the well-known example of guitar string manufacturer Ernie Ball dumping all Microsoft products and using Red Hat Linux and OpenOffice on the desktop.

Who’s next? Just a shortlist of possible LDA users: companies that want to contain costs; schools with limited budgets; and people fed up with paying Microsoft, worrying about the latest security alerts, while watching the vendor report billions in quarterly earnings.

Is Microsoft doomed? With numerous vendors like Sun enhancing and offering open source desktop solutions, the seemingly pacified desktop market will soon see a renewed battle. Even Apple is back in the mix, having put a fancy Mac finish on top of a UNIX shell. But with $50 billion in cash and short-term investments and a take-no-prisoners mentality, it’s tough to predict Microsoft will lose or concede. However, there is no doubt that the minor Linux desktop trickle will soon become a steady stream -- perhaps eventually a flood.