Bill Gates and, by extension, Microsoft, have really wanted the tablet PC to make it big. Right now, a relatively few number of people use them as mobile clipboards and form-filling devices, such as insurance adjusters and doctors. But Microsoft still believes that the tablet PC can and will become a mainstream computing device. This dream has been going on for years but with little market success despite improved batteries, cheaper screens, low-power processors, and more tech-dependent and -aware consumers.

Are tablet PCs cool?

How's this for hype: The official tablet PC blog on MSDN, called TabBlogger, has this header:

"The chronicles of a test engineer on one of the coolest projects remaining in mainstream computing - the Tablet PC!"

We appreciate the enthusiasm, but tablet PCs aren't really cool, at least if you judge coolness by consumer and corporate interest. They are not cool like game consoles, iPods, or notebook computers.

Putting the coolness factor aside, Microsoft has often shown determination with seeing many of its dreams become realities, and the dream of tablet PCs is a great example of its willingness to keep going, despite little success.

Pushing the concept for years

For a little historical perspective on the Microsoft-tablet PC love affair, you can read some of the company's past efforts to get the market going. Here's an example from a November 7, 2002, Microsoft press release:

"The long-held industry vision of mainstream pen-based computing today became a reality as Microsoft Corp. and a broad range of computer, software and microchip companies announced the availability of Tablet PCs. Bill Gates, chairman and chief software architect of Microsoft, was joined by corporate customers and partners to showcase the capabilities of the Tablet PC as the evolution of today's notebook PCs."

A year earlier, another press release quoted Gates:

"With the Tablet PC, the industry is entering a new phase of mobile computing that will make the power of a fully functional PC more flexible and accessible than ever before," Gates said. "Tablet PCs will greatly extend the capabilities of today's laptop computers, allowing users to interact with their computer in exciting new ways and significantly increase the value of the PC in the workplace."

And one year before that statement, in November 2000, Gates made similar claims:

"Now, I mentioned that the PC portables have been moving along, getting into new form factors. There's a radical step that can be taken, we believe, when you get to a form factor that's truly tablet sized, and has the ergonomics of a tablet, something that you would take with you into a meeting. We've got some incredible people at Microsoft working on this. It's one of the most amazing projects we've ever done."

"We just finished some of the prototypes of that device, and I have to say there's been more fighting over who gets to use those prototypes than any new thing that we've ever done. I think that's a good sign."

Not this year

Will Microsoft eventually be right? Will the tablet PC, reborn as Origami devices, finally succeed? If tablet PCs do succeed in the mainstream, the company and Gates will have earned the right to say, "We told you so!"

The tablet PC goes hand in hand with one of two "next-generation" technologies Gates has been touting for years: speech and handwriting recognition. In a speech in April 2001, Gates said:

"Of course, the holy grails of user interface, the use of handwriting and speech, are very important to us, because we believe those technologies will be moving into the mainstream in the next five to ten years."

But like speech and handwriting technologies, the tablet PC remains a niche player. We have yet to see the final Origami device form factor, but it appears it will be bigger and more capable than a handheld like a PocketPC or iPod but smaller than a full-size notebook or tablet. We think it will be too big to replace music devices and handheld devices, which are already losing out to enhanced phones. Also, we believe that its main purpose, data entry and interaction using touch and a stylus, are simply not what most users want. The keyboard is so familiar -- and embedded trackpads relatively easy to use -- that the tablet PCs interface will not sway users. Besides, users have been conditioned for years to avoid longhand, so reverting to a stylus and using "handwriting" will be a backward step. And speech input will always suffer from being potentially embarrassing or unworkable in public.

Is there room in the market for such a device? Certainly tablet users today will see and enjoy the improvements that come with Origami-based offerings. But we expect that in the fall of 2006 and many more falls to come, Gates will once again use his Comdex speech to tout the future of computing, including tablet PCs and handwriting and speech recognition. 2006, like many years before, will not be the year of the tablet PC.